一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的航空公司机票超售数量确定方法
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    摘要:

    针对以往航空公司座位超售模型方法较为粗略,确定的超售数量偏大这一问题,通过蒙特卡洛模拟的计算机仿真方法对机票超售展开研究。首先,改进了运筹学中“报童问题”的数学模型,细化了目标函数中的成本,将机票超售的成本确定为超售机票过多产生的赔偿成本和过少产生的虚耗成本两部分。在约束条件方面,由于以往的经典方法给出的超售数量偏大,故将其转化为超售的最大数量约束,从而建立了确定机票超售数量的数学模型。其次,建立了乘客预定机票与航空公司超售机票的随机过程,并从不同超售座位数下航空公司的收益、不同赔付额度下的最优超售策略和客座率对航空公司超售的影响这三个方面分别进行了1000次模拟。最后,根据蒙特卡洛模拟的结果,给出了三种不同情况下超售策略的结果,并根据模拟结果给出了机票的销售建议。

    Abstract:

    To solve the problem that the overbooking model is rough and the oversold quantity is too large, overbooking of airline tickets is studied by the computer simulation method of Monte Carlo simulation. Firstly, the mathematical model of newsvendor problem in operational research is improved, and the cost in the objective function is refined. More specifically, the cost of overbooking is determined as 2 parts: overestimate cost and underestimate cost. In terms of constraints, because the oversold quantity given by the previous classical methods is too large, it is transformed into the oversold quantity constraint. Thus, a mathematical model is established to determine the oversold quantity of air tickets. Secondly, the stochastic process of booking tickets and overbooking tickets is established, and 1000 simulations are carried out respectively from three aspects: the revenue of airlines under different overbooking seats, the optimal overbooking strategy under different compensation limits and the impact of passenger return probability on overbooking of airlines. Finally, according to the results of Monte Carlo simulation, the paper gives some suggestions on the strategy of computer oversold in different situations.

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王航臣,曹宇露,赵迪.一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的航空公司机票超售数量确定方法[J].民用飞机设计与研 究,2021(2):130-136WANG Hangchen, CAO Yulu, ZHAO Di.[J]. Civil Aircraft Design and Research,2021,(2):130-136. ( in Chinese)

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-07-08
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