In order to determine scientifically and reasonably the inspection time for aircraft brake friction disk based on the actual operation conditions of aircraft, proposes a prediction model of Markov chain. The brake friction disk for a certain fleet are taken as an example to determine inspection time, discusses wear state classification of brake friction disk, transition probability matrices is constructed and estimated, wear state of brake friction disk for the fleet is forecast, the results show that prediction results have a good agreement with actual detections. The inspection time for aircraft brake friction disk in the actual operating conditions is determined base on the prediction results of brake friction disk wear. The practical operation results show that the inspection time for aircraft brake friction disk is feasible and effective.