王晶.全球航空旅客周转量预测及运力分配方法[J].民用飞机设计与研究,2017,(4):16-
全球航空旅客周转量预测及运力分配方法
Global Aviation Revenue Passenger Kilometers Forecast and Capacity Allocation Methodolody
  
DOI:
中文关键词:航空旅客运输量  回归分析  运力分配
英文关键词:aviation passenger traffic transportation  forecast regression analysis  capacity allocation
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作者单位
王晶 上海飞机设计研究院上海 201210 
中文摘要:民机制造商在新飞机可行性论证、公司产品战略制定以及飞机销售中,需要了解航空市场规模和未来航空市场飞机的需求,为可行性论证提供投资规模计算输入,为制造商制定产品战略发展提供依据,为飞机销售计划提供数据支持。预测未来客机市场的需求量,其关键是对航空旅客周转量的预测。采用线性回归预测出航空旅客周转量,除以上座率得到航空市场运力需求,即可供座位数,并将运力需求分配后与各地区机队预测的运力供给相匹配,最终得出所需的飞机需求量。
英文摘要:The civil aviation manufacturers need understand aviation market size and the aircraft demands in future aviation market during new aircraft feasibility study, company products strategy making and aircraft sales, which can provide the input of investment scale calculation for feasibility study, the basis for manufacture’s strategy development and data support for aircraft sales plan. The key point of forecasting future aviation revenue passenger kilometers is to forecast the revenue passenger kilometers. By linear regression to forecast aviation revenue passenger kilometers and dividing passenger aircraft loader factor, we can obtain aviation market capacities, which is called available seats kilometers, and after matching the allocation capacities of demand side and the capacities of forecast fleet, finally calculate the aircraft demand.
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